Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council decided to continue the implementation of policies such as exemption from vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles to promote mass consumption. In order to expand consumption, cultivate new growth points and promote the consumption of new energy vehicles and the upgrading of related industries, the meeting decided to extend the exemption policy for new energy vehicles to the end of next year, and continue to provide support for exemption from vehicle and vessel tax, consumption tax, right of way, license plate, etc. Vigorously build charging piles and support them with policy-based development financial tools.
The charging issue is considered to be the "last mile" promoted by the electric vehicle industry and is crucial to the promotion and development of electric vehicles. In recent years, national charging facility planning and construction policies have been frequent. According to a research report released by CITIC Securities analyst Huang Yayuan on June 21, in 2020, charging piles, as a supporting facility for the promotion of new energy vehicles, were written into the government work report for the first time, and included in "new infrastructure" as one of the seven major industries.
In 2022, various provinces will introduce a series of policies to promote the construction of new energy charging facilities, and it is expected that the vehicle pile ratio will gradually be reduced to 2:1 in the future. Huang Yayuan pointed out that the current charging pile construction situation is still far from the overall planning goal, with the revision of the guidance and the promotion of policies, it is expected that the vehicle pile ratio still has room to decline, and the construction of charging piles will continue to advance.
Yang Shaohui, an analyst at Everbright Securities, and others pointed out in a research report released on August 1 that as of the end of June 2022, the national ownership of new energy vehicles reached 10.01 million, accounting for 3.23% of the total number of vehicles; The number of charging piles in China is 3.918 million. Li Xing, an analyst at Guangdong Development Securities, pointed out in a research report released on August 11 that since 2016, the number of domestic electric vehicle public charging piles has surged to 1.06 million units, and it is expected that the policy will continue to be released, and the coverage of charging piles as a core infrastructure will increase rapidly.
In addition, the construction of private charging piles has accelerated, and the growth rate is leading. According to data from the China Charging Alliance, from January to May 2022, the increase in charging infrastructure was 963,000 units, of which the increase in public charging piles increased by 253.8% year-on-year, and the number of private charging piles equipped with vehicles increased by 516.5% year-on-year.
In terms of market size, according to data from the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, the market size of China's charging pile in 2017 was only 7.2 billion yuan, driven by both market and policy factors, it reached 41.9 billion yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 55% from 2017 to 2021, and the market size is expected to reach 287 billion yuan by the end of 2026. Zheshang Securities analyst Qiu Shiliang and others in a research report on April 16 predicted that the number of new charging piles in the world is expected to reach 13.99 million units in 2025, corresponding to a market space of 196.3 billion yuan, and a CAGR of 65% from 2021 to 2025.
Chen Baojian, an analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, pointed out in a research report released on July 19 that according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 is expected to reach 25%. CCID Consulting predicts that by 2030, the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 64.2 million, according to the construction target of 1:1 vehicle pile ratio, in the next 10 years, there will still be a gap of about 63 million in China's charging pile construction, which is expected to form a charging pile infrastructure construction market of 1,025.3 billion.
In terms of industrial chain, the new energy charging pile industry chain includes upstream charging pile component manufacturers, midstream charging pile operation service providers, and downstream support links. Among them, equipment parts manufacturers (equipment end) and charging pile operators (operation end) are the most important links in the charging pile industry chain. Qiu Shiliang pointed out that the upstream equipment competition of charging piles is sufficient, the midstream operation head is concentrated, and the downstream service model still needs to be explored.
Specifically, the technical threshold of upstream equipment is low, the degree of product homogeneity is high (profitability is low), and the number of related companies in the field of domestic charging pile equipment production exceeds 300, and the market competition is more sufficient. The main enterprises include: Guodian Narui, Crestec, Shenghong Co., Ltd., Kelu Electronics, Xuji Electric, Heshun Electric, Siyuan Electric, Zhongheng Electric, Senyuan Electric, Juhua Technology, Easter, Wanma Co., Ltd., Aotexun, Inkerui, etc.
In terms of midstream operations, market participants are mainly third-party professional operating enterprises, and some car companies and energy/power grid companies are also involved in charging operation services. In 2021, the TOP5 public charging pile operators include Star Charging, Special Call, State Grid, Cloud Fast Charging, and China Southern Power Grid. Yang Shaohui believes that the head aggregation effect of charging pile operators is obvious. As of June 2022, there are 15 charging piles operated by charging operators nationwide with more than 14,000 units, and the top 15 operators operate 92.5% of the charging piles.
In terms of downstream services, charging piles will be closely integrated with smart grid, Internet of Things, 5G communications, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of Vehicles and other high-tech to extend the industrial chain backwards and expand new value-added service areas to improve the utilization rate and profitability of charging piles, and the specific profit model is still being explored.
From the perspective of listed companies, Soochow Securities analyst Zhang Liangwei released a research report on June 1 pointed out that in addition to Shenghong shares, the gross profit margin of charging pile-related businesses such as Guodian Narui, Truide, Xinrui Technology, Inkerui, and Autexun has not exceeded 30%. Among them, the total number of charging piles connected to the charging operation platform reached 268,000 in the first quarter of this year, with a domestic share of about 22%; Inkerui launched a series of liquid-cooled module products and charging pile system solutions to improve the weather resistance of the charging pile system; Autotexon has invested, built and operated more than 100 intensive flexible public charging demonstration stations across the country.
However, Yang Shaohui pointed out that the problem of slow charging is still an important factor hindering the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Zhang Liangwei also pointed out that overseas charging pile companies, such as ABB and Siemens, which are based on product development, have gross profit margins of more than 30%, and Tesla's charging pile business gross profit is also about 30%, slightly higher than the average level of domestic companies.
